$RUT – 5/27/19 – Look-Out Below!

Russell 2000 5/27/19

If you look at the monthly, weekly and daily, it appears a top is in for the Russell 2000 in 2019.

This index could go to $1375 – $1300 Which is frightening when you think about the amount of 401ks locked into this index.

Bearish Trend is clear on the weekly since we are below the highs of August 2018. And the index is now unable to break $1600. Not sure why you would be long this stock if you’re paying attention.

The $1375 is the 50 MONTH MOVING AVERAGE which was hit in the December 2018 sell-off. Why couldn’t we hit it again? We have a ton of downside catalysts ready in the wings of the market. This could be an interesting summer.

Trade Range 7 – 10 – 19

The US Stock Market of Nothing

The US stock market is fucking dumb. There is no clear trend to follow. The highs of certain indexes give us hope but…I’m seeing GOLD rip higher. The run higher in GOLD makes me wonder why I didn’t buy it in April when it started to move. I’m in GOLD now but it’s not the same as being their early.

The RUSSELL 2000 needs to break 1600 for anything meaningful and 1700 for anything important. All it needs is a little push in one direction and it can go. I suspect over the summer with less volume in the market, we have a higher chance for more downside than upside. Q4 is different but in the next 90 days, we have to be cautious.

You can look at the daily, weekly and monthly chart yourself. Tell me what you see. Do you see an uptrend, neutral or downtrend? Looks neutral to me.

The NASDAQ looks like a lower high. Admittedly, I’m short at a very substantial loss at the moment.

The $QQQ and $XLK are my instruments to short tech.  The force index on the monthly, weekly and daily are all positive. Not a great sign for my shorts…well I’m gonna learn a lesson and buy short-term call options against my position in hopes of recovering some of it.

Since it’s the start of a new week, I’ll offer up the Sunday Night, Trade Zone:

$VIX: $13.97 – $18.41

The $VIX is at the bottom of its zone. It could fall further but there is a high probability it will be much higher in 2-4 weeks.

$SPY: $274.86 – $298.76

The $SPY is near the highs of its zone. It could fall back or rally higher. There is certainly more downside in the zone. Near it’s higher you can wait and watch.

$IWM:

$146.36 – $156.01

$IWM is at the top of its zone too. This is aggressively purchased.  It’s worth watching until it falls to the bottom of the range. Not sure I trust the uptrend for the RUSSELL. I might short from here. It’s a nice spot I think.

What do you think of the range?